Last week was rough for NFL pickswith several underdogs prevailing, but we were careful with most of the favorites and ended up looking strong against the spread.Now it's time to get back on track straight up.
The good news is Week 6 brings two fewer games on the schedule with four teams (Bills, Bears, Colts and Raiders) onbye weeks. So that's a little less to get wrong, but also alittle less to get right.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds at Sportsbook Review
Here's taking our shots, navigating through a few more big numbers and several more toss-up games.
Week 6NFL picks against the spread
- Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams(-3, -115)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams are coming off a mini-bye after theirThursday night game in Week 5, andthe 49ers have a short week turnaround on the road. The Rams are battling through a rare two-game losing streak with Sean McVay, and they should clean up a lot of their issues defensively while also finding ways to be more dynamic and balanced offensively. This will bea good duel between McVay and Kyle Shanahan, but the slight advantage at home goes to one JG (Jared Goff) over the other (Jimmy Garoppolo).
Pick: Rams win 27-23and cover thespread.
- Game of the Midweek: New York Giants at New England Patriots(-17, -101)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network,Amazon Prime Video
The Giants will be without Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling ShTheir remainingmatchups against the Patriots' defense aren't good, and New York will be dependent on mostly chunkplays with Barkley to move the ball. Tom Brady,meanwhile, can go to work againstanother awful secondary and put Jonesin anuncomfortable catch-up position.
Pick: Patriots win 31-10and cover the spread.
- Upset of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles (+2 1/2, +110) over Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings almost blew a big lead but were able to win in Philadelphia last season. The Eagles will return the favor in Minneapolis. Both teams can stop the run,so it comes down to which quarterback, Carson Wentz or Kirk Cousins, can distribute the ballunder some heat without committing turnovers. Cousins willhit on some big playsagainst the Eagles' secondary, butWentz will be a little more versatile as the Eagles play the better ball-control game.
Pick: Eagles win 24-23.
- Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens(-11, -107) over Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens are a run-first team with Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and their complementary backs. Their passing game is off,and rookie wide receiver Marquise Brown is hurting. They won't get cute here; they instead willjust pound away against a Bengals defense that can't stop anything on the ground. Cincinnati,meanwhile, istrying to keep thingstogether with theoffensive firepower they have left, but there's no reason tothink they will keep a division road game close.
Pick: Ravens win 33-16 and cover the spread.
- Carolina Panthers (-2, -105) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
The Panthers have won three consecutive games since Cam Newton struggled against the Bucs at home in Week 2. Kyle Allen has played OK, but he is beingbuoyedby the running of Christian McCaffrey and the defense, two things that didn't work for Carolina in itsfirst meeting with Tampa Bay. Nobody knows what the Bucs will get fromJameis Winston, and theirpass-happy offense(andimproved defense) is getting harder to figure out, too. The Panthers are the more known quantity on a neutral field,and that's where the trustshould lie.
Pick: Panthers win 23-20 and cover the spread.
- Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5, -101)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs are no longer undefeated, and their offensecooled down last week thanks tothe combination of a banged-up Patrick Mahomes, a suddenly shaky offensive line and no commitment to the running game. Mahomes, however, will get revved back up for a shootout with 2017 first-round draft mate Deshaun Watson, knowing he'll likely get abig-play reinforcement in Tyreek Hill. Watson and Mahomeswill take turns lighting it up, but the Chiefs will be better positioned to pull awayin the fourth quarter.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.
- New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars(-1 1/2, -105)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
One can expect this game to featurea lot of Saints fans who made the relatively short 8-hour drivestraight down I-10 to try to help their team get to 4-0 with Teddy Bridgewater starting for Drew Brees. Bridgewater also will have some local support back in his home state,balancing out the magic that comes with Gardner Minshew playing in Jacksonville. Look for the Saints to get it done, per usual with plenty of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and more swarming defense to complement them.
Pick: Saints win 26-20 and cover the spread.
- Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (PK)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Russell Wilson is a road warrior and is playing lights out, mostly avoiding big sacks as well as turnovers. The Seahawks also canstay committed to the run in this game to keeppressure off the QB. Theirdefense will give up its share of big pass plays to Baker Mayfield, but it also can disrupt the Browns' offensein key situations with Jadeveon Clowney. It will be harder for Myles Garrett to throw off Wilson.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-20.
- Washington Redskins (-3 1/2, -108) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Redskins will be fired up to deliver their first win of the season for interim coach Bill Callahan. At the same time, the Dolphins will come out flying after their bye week knowing this is their chance to crack the goose egg, too. Washington still has superior talent,and if the visitors protect the ball with more commitment to the run, they can wina low-scoring game by a field goal.
Pick: Redskins win 19-16 but fail to cover the spread.
- Atlanta Falcons(-2 1/2, -105)at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons are in a bad state with Dan Quinn's defense, but in this game,all the hard work Matt Ryan is doing will pay off.The QBgets to throw to Julio Jones with no worries about Patrick Peterson, who is serving the final game of his six-week suspension. The Cardinals have been a spread-it-out offense, and Kyler Murray's running can cause issues, but they don't havea big-play offense. Theirplaying fast will only help the Falcons' passing game put up digits.
Pick: Falcons win 31-27.
- Dallas Cowboys (-7, +110)at New York Jets
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Cowboys saw their level of competition increase over the last two weekrs,and they weren't up to the task against the Saints or the Packers. But this can be their get-well game against a mess of a defense and limited offense. Dak Prescott will breakout of his slump with a clean passing game, andEzekiel Elliott finally willfeedoff ahighvolume of touches. Le'Veon Bell is the only playerthe Jets can get going in this game, but he won't provideenoughto make much of a difference, even with a healthy Sam Darnold.
Pick: Cowboys win 38-13 and cover the spread.
- Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2 1/2, -108)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans are 2-1on the road and 0-2 at home. They are the more talented defensive team with the better chance for running successwith Derrick Henry. Joe Flacco has the better weapons overall, but it's a wash between him and Marcus Mariota in terms of mediocre QB play. Go with Tennessee off a bad loss vs. Denver off an uglywin.
Pick: Titans win 23-20.
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6 1/2, -115)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Steelers mightneed to start undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges after seeing Mason Rudolph go down with a scary concussion. Onecan anticipate the Steelers, then, togorun-heavy with James Conner to attack the Chargers' defensiveweakness. The issue will be when the Chargers move the ball and finish drives, which they didn't do against the Broncos, and eventuallyforceHodges (or Rudolph) to throw more against their edge rush and secondary.
Pick: Chargers win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4 1/2, -105)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Packers are featured in a prime-time gamefor the third time this season, adding a Monday night to their two Thursday night appearances. They'll fare better than they did against the Eagles with the chance to go 3-0 in the NFC North and start pulling away in the division. This will likely turn into a game ofAaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford trading pass plays all over the field, but the Packers' improveddefense is a littlebetter equipped than the Lions' unit to counter.
Pick: Packers win 30-23 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week:
Week 5record straight up: 6-8
Week 5record against the spread: 9-4
Season record straight up: 51-25
Season record against the spread: 43-29
Upsets of the Week: 4-1
Locks of the Week: 3-2
